出刊年月/Date of Publishing

1998.03

所屬卷期/Vol. & No.   第28卷第1期 Vol. 28, No. 1

類型/Type                 研究論文 Research Article

篇名/Title
邁向唐寧街十號：1997年英國大選工黨勝選因素初探
March toward No.10 Downing Street: A Preliminary Analysis of Labour’s Victory in the 1997 British General Election

作者/Author
黃偉峰 Wei-Feng Huang

頁碼/Pagination
pp. 137-192

摘要
1997年英國大選結果並不出人意外，工黨壓倒性獲勝執政。然而，到底是什麼因素促使工黨大勝呢？論者以為保守黨長期執政，弊端叢生，醜聞不斷，甚至背棄承諾和罔顧民意，都造成選民極端的不滿。反觀工業致力業務革新與組織政策之調整，逐漸獲得選民信賴。這些因素反應在選票上，則工黨勝選是無可避免的。本文引用經驗資料檢證上述假說。並以「縝密敘述」(thick description) 的方式重新建構九七年英國大選的過程及結果，並藉此提出兩項值得進一步硏究的問題：即「反執政黨策略性投票」與「經濟投票」在英國大選中所扮演之角色。

Abstract
The result of the 1997 British general election was anticipated. The Labour party won a landslide victory and regained control of the government. Among the factors leading to Labour’s victory were the failure of the Conservative government which had been in power since 1979. Controversial scandals, breaking promises, and ignoring public opinions all contributed to the Conservative’s downfall. By the mid-1990’s, the Labour party, for its part, had recovered public confidence through party reform and policy adjustment. Transforming these factors into votes, Labour’s victory was seen as inevitable. This paper examines the factors leading to Labour’s victory in 1997. Using thick description, I re-construct the process and outcome of the 1997 British general election. At the same time, I propose to re-examine the impact of anti-government tactical voting and economic voting on the outcome of recent British general elections.

關鍵字/Key Word
縝密敘述、黑色星期三、期中補選丶良好感受指標、反執政黨策略性投票
thick description, “Black Wednesday”, by-election, feel-good factor, anti-government tactical voting

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DOI
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學門分類/Subject
政治學 Political Science